The DELTA Model® is a global food system mass balance that uses information about current food production to predict the nutrition available to the average global citizen both now and in the future.
The model lets the user adjust the production of different food groups, the degree of food waste, and the global population to see the impact of these changes on human nutrition. The most recent version also calculates the cropland area required for food production.
Future versions of the model will include estimates of the impacts of food system scenarios on total land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and other resource constraints.
A challenge we face is our ability to sustainably nourish an increasing global population without exceeding the capacity of the planet. There are many different ways of approaching this challenge, and many suggestions for what the answer may be.
The DELTA Model® has been developed to help people explore this challenge themselves by manipulating the major components of the food system to see the impact on the supply of key nutrients.
The model is found by logging in to your account from the Models and Tools page.
More information on How to use the DELTA Model® can be found here.
The DELTA Model® has several attractive features that make the tool broadly applicable:
Scenario options contains high level scenario settings and enables the user to switch between predefined food system options.
Primary production contains the annual production of each of the food product groups in millions of tonnes.
Secondary modifiers contains a range of other model options for the user to select.
Food production information is taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food Balance Sheets and combined with food composition data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) FoodData Central. The core of DELTA is a model that allows the user to modify food production from the FAO food balance sheets and view the impact on the nutrition available to the average global citizen.
The DELTA Model® has been developed to help people explore this challenge themselves by manipulating the major components of the food system to see the impact on the supply of key nutrients.
The Delta Model generates viable outcomes from complex initial scenarios.
The DELTA Model® WORKSHOP has been authored by Dr Margaret Murray from Monash University. This workshop helps users explore the challenge of sustainably nourishing an increasing global population without exceeding the capacity of the planet.
There are many ways of approaching this challenge, and many suggestions for what the answer may be…
In this workshop, students can challenge themselves using the DELTA Model® to manipulate the major components of the food system and see the impact on the supply of key nutrients, worldwide.
How it works:
Vitamin D and iodine
Non-essential amino acids include: alanine, arginine, asparagine, aspartic acid, cysteine, glutamic acid, glutamine, glycine, proline, serine, and tyrosine. These have not been included in the DELTA Model® as the internal processes the nutrients are involved in are challenging to account for accurately, and these nutrients can also be synthesised from essential amino acids. Essential acids isoleucine and valine are also not present in the DELTA Model® currently as they are rarely the limiting amino acid in the human diet. Inclusion of these nutrients in the model is being considered for future versions.
Materiality
The DELTA Model® provides scenarios that indicate directional movement to determine any adverse outcomes in food supply and nutrient availability from various scenarios. This is not to say that the outcomes of such a scenario (e.g. no meat) will most certainly result in the simulated nutrient deficiencies, rather it alludes to likely outcomes of changes in production. Changes in future food production will be broad and nuanced, and it is imperative to ensure the direction that such changes shift global nutrient availability is adequate to feed our growing population.
Microbiome
A healthy human intestinal microbiome provides numerous services, such as supporting absorption of nutrients and acting as a protection against infection. An unhealthy microbiome can be linked to poor health. Research insight has suggested that although a correlative relationship has been found between microbiomes and disease, the underlying processes that would determine a causal relationship are uncertain. As such, the role of the intestinal microbiome in nutrition is beyond the scope of the DELTA Model®.
Global averaging of nutrient availability
DELTA assumes an equal distribution of food globally and produces an average nutrient availability for the global population. This does not capture the realistic distribution of food that is inequitable across the world. This is because the DELTA Model® considers nutrient adequacy at a global scale and provides insight on various food system scenarios and the capability to produce nutrition for all. Both the individual and the global perspectives, and thus both modelling approaches, are necessary when considering the aptitude of the food system. DELTA does include historic information of on the distribution of nutrients at a country level, which provides come insight into the range of availability. However, there are too many variables to project this variation onto future scenarios, and insufficient data to look at the variation in intake or availability within countries.
Demand versus requirement
DELTA considers only nutrient requirements. Nutrient demand, where the specific nutrients and amounts are determined by consumers, is quite different and is not captured by DELTA Model®.
Bioavailability
The current version of the model contains good data for protein and amino acid bioavailability. For iron and zinc, the availability of data for individual food items is not as great, therefore bioavailability is captured by changing nutrient requirement values. Due to insufficient bioavailability data for all other nutrients, no consideration of bioavailability is made for these.
Nutrient absorption
Nutrient absorption is dependent on the meals and food combinations people make in their diet. Individual diets are beyond scope of DELTA, and thus meal effects are not captured.
Nutrient targets
The strength of the model’s nutrient requirement estimates are dependent on the EFSA data source. For some nutrients, limited data is available on human requirements, whereas for others there is sufficient data for all age and gender groups to set upper and lower bounds on intake, as well as target intakes.
FAO data
The FAO data that informs the model has limitations. Some countries are missing data, and the quality of data reported varies between countries. Moreover, inhome waste estimates are at a regional and food group level. Unfortunately, this data is the best currently available and is sufficient for directional conclusions on future changes to the food system.
Resolution
Currently, food items are grouped into 15 food groups for ease of use by a broad audience. This means that any increase in the total production of a food group causes a proportional increase in the production of each food item within it, following the distribution in the baseline data set. This increase is carried through all model calculations: waste, other uses, and the available nutrients. Future versions of the model may allow for user input at a higher resolution.
The DELTA Model®
Design: Andrew Fletcher, Jeremy Hill, Simon Hunter, Warren McNabb, Nick Smith
Programming: Andrew Fletcher, Nick Smith, Joshua Ghezzi, Christopher Pearce
Research and Nutrition: Lakshmi Acharya, Shalome Bassett, Natalie Russell, Caroline Gunn, Nick Smith, Warren McNabb
Resources: We would like to thank shift n for permission to reproduce the global food system map.
The Riddet Institute | World Leading Research and Food Innovations
The DELTA Model® Data Sources
Food Production: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food Balance Sheets
Food Composition: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) FoodData Central
Demographics: UN FAO Annual Population and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) World Population Prospects
Nutrition Requirements: European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) (2017) Dietary reference values for nutrients and UN FAO (2013) Dietary protein quality evaluation in human nutrition.
In-home Losses: UN FAO (2011) – Global Food Losses and Food Waste